March 2019

Relevance

  • Growing emphasis on incarceration and criminal justice financial penalties since the 1980’sRuback, 2015; Appleman, 2016
  • Increase in the female incarceration rate by nearly 600% between 1980 and 2008
  • Corresponding growth in Correctional state budgets

Figure 1. National female prison incarceration rate <br> per 100,000 female residents: 1978-2016.

Figure 1. National female prison incarceration rate
per 100,000 female residents: 1978-2016.

Criminal Justice Reform in Utah (2015)

Broad system-wide changes with the aim of reducing incarceration and recidivism

  • No changes to court-ordered debts

Definitions

Financial Sanctions

Financial sanctions “rest on a continuum.” Their intent ranges from restoring victims of crime to purely sanctioning the offenderRuback & Bergstrom, 2006, p. 248

Typically divided into:

  • Restitution

  • Fines

  • Fees

Literature Review

Growing yet small empirical body of literature Krantz (2010), Harris, Evans, and Beckett (2010), Iratzoqui and Metcalfe (2015)*, Piquero, Jennings (2016), and Pleggenkhule (2017)

..in which are rather uniform in finding a positive relationship between these debts and recidivism.

Research Contribution

This study..

uses a new and rich Utah specific data set to further explore the relationship between financial sanctions and failure on supervision using new methods, including Bayesian Model Averaging for an underlying survival model class.

Data & Methods

Data

  • 514 indigent female felony probationers (2012 cohort)

  • Demographics, risk-level, criminal history, and employment control variables (>20 independent variables variables)

  • Financial data (restitution, fines, and public defender fees in binary form)

  • 36 months follow-up time (indicates a revocation to prison within 3-years of probation start)

Variable name Description
revoked Indicates a revocation to prison
time_var Time (in days) spent on probation before being revoked or discharged
age Age (in years) at probation start 
minority Indicates if the offender is nonwhite 
hispanic Indicates if the offender is Hispanic
white Indicates if the offender is white
black Indicates if the offender is black
married Indicates if the offender is married
dependents Indicates if the offender has at least one dependent
p_misd Discrete variable counting all the offender’s prior misdemeanor convictions
p_fel Discrete variable counting all the offender’s prior felony convictions
p_inc Indicates if the offender has a prior incarceration period
lsi_score LSI score at supervision start date (risk to reoffend)
severity Indicates the severity of the current offense (F1 & F2 vs. F3)
drug_alch Indicates if the current offense was a drug or alcohol offense
dp_only Indicates if the current offense was a drug possession only offense
property Indicates if the current offense was a property offense
person Indicates if the current offense was a person crime
other Indicates if the current offense was uncategorized
hsd Indicates if the offender has a high school diploma or above
emp_1mos Indicates if the offender was employed within 1 month of supervision start
emp_3mos Indicates if the offender was employed within 3 months of supervision start
wage Average hourly wage during the offender’s supervision term
restitution Indicates if the offender was ordered to pay restitution
fine Indicates if the offender was ordered to pay a fine
all_debts Indicates if the offender was ordered to pay a (public defender fee), fine and a restitution amount (zero otherwise)

Figure 2. Mean return rate by group

Figure 2. Mean return rate by group

Figure 3. Kaplan Meier Survival Curves <br> by Group.

Figure 3. Kaplan Meier Survival Curves
by Group.

Figure 4. Median amounts ordered

Figure 4. Median amounts ordered

Variable mean median max
Public defender fees 392 500 1,500
Fines 1,007 610 6,561
Restitution 3,914 680 240,789
Total 2,637 1,150 241,339

Methods

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). BMA averages across the most likely models as determined by the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC).

  • Linear model

  • Survival model

Why BMA?

  • Accounts for uncertainty in the variable selection process
  • Can be used as a standalone analysis or for aid in variable selection for use in single model analyses
  • Posterior inclusion probabilities provide alternatives to p-values in summarizing parameter strength

Figure 5. Models selected by BMA.

Figure 5. Models selected by BMA.

BMA Coefficient Estimation

50 models were selected. Best 5 models (cumulative posterior probability = 0.3)
p! = 0 EV SD m1 m2 m3 m4 m5
Intercept 100.0 -0.52 0.15 -0.50 -0.45 -0.54 -0.51 -0.57
age_cat2 20.9 0.01 0.03 0.06
age_cat3 11.4 -0.01 0.03
age_cat4 3.1 0.00 0.02
married 3.4 0.00 0.01
dependents 65.0 0.06 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
minority 0.0 0.00 0.00
hispanic 1.1 0.00 0.01
black 0.0 0.00 0.00
severity 2.3 0.00 0.01
p_fel 1.2 0.00 0.00
p_misd_l 0.0 0.00 0.00
p_inc 100.0 0.22 0.06 0.21 0.23 0.21 0.22 0.23
lsi_score_l 100.0 0.46 0.10 0.45 0.45 0.48 0.44 0.47
hsd 0.8 0.00 0.00
property 0.7 0.00 0.00
person 0.0 0.00 0.00
drug_alch 1.0 0.00 0.01
other 0.8 0.00 0.01
emp_1mos 0.0 0.00 0.00
emp_3mos 0.0 0.00 0.00
wage_cat2 70.2 -0.08 0.07 -0.13 -0.12 -0.12 -0.12
wage_cat3 69.7 -0.09 0.07 -0.14 -0.13 -0.13 -0.13
restitution 25.9 0.03 0.05 0.12
fine 0.0 0.00 0.00
all_debts 74.1 0.09 0.06 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12
nVar 6.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 4.00
R2 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.12
BIC -41.56 -40.36 -39.38 -39.07 -39.00
post prob 0.14 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.04

Summary & Policy Considerations

Summary

Statistical support for financial variables being a risk factor for failure on probation

  • fines and restitution is linked to increased failure rates

  • increases in hourly wages is linked to reduced failure rates

  • Consideration of short- and long-term societal costs

Policy Options

  • Allow the use of community service as an alternative way to pay off financial debts

  • Expand current legislation to prohibit employers asking applicants about their criminal past

  • Increase the use of employer tax incentives for employing those with a felony record

Thank You